New Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Transitions to Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

New Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Transitions to Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

TitleNew Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Transitions to Alternative Fuels and Vehicles
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsJoel Bremson, Alan K Meier, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin, Joan Ogden
JournalTransportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Volume2385
Issue1
Pagination61 - 69
Date PublishedJan-01-2013
ISSN0361-1981
Abstract

A large-scale transition to alternative fuels and vehicles is challenging. New modeling approaches are necessary to supplement existing mod-els, such as MARKAL. One promising approach is simulation gam-ing. Simulation gaming has been used extensively in many fields, most conspicuously in military applications, to provide insights into the dynamics of uncertain processes. A large-scale game to simulate tran-sitions to alternative fuels and vehicles was developed to explore the potential of this approach. Preliminary results of the game play suggest a possible counterintuitive dynamic: high energy prices can discourage the wide-scale adoption of alternative fuel vehicles because increased fuel costs reduce consumers’ ability to pay for more costly alternative vehicle technologies.

URLhttp://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.3141/2385-08http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.3141/2385-08http://trb.metapress.com/index/AH61863Q21282M27.pdfhttp://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.3141/2385-08
DOI10.3141/2385-08
Short TitleTransportation Research Record