Modeling diffusion of electrical appliances in the residential sector

Modeling diffusion of electrical appliances in the residential sector

TitleModeling diffusion of electrical appliances in the residential sector
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2010
AuthorsMichael A McNeil, Virginie E Letschert
JournalEnergy and Buildings
Date Published06/2010
KeywordsAir Conditioners, appliance energy efficiency, appliances, Diffusion rates, energy demand modeling, modeling, refrigerators, regression analysis, residential, televisions, Washing machines

This paper presents a methodology for modeling residential appliance uptake as a function of root macroeconomic drivers. The analysis concentrates on four major energy end uses in the residential sector: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions and air conditioners. The model employs linear regression analysis to parameterize appliance ownership in terms of household income, urbanization and electrification rates according to a standard binary choice (logistic) function. The underlying household appliance ownership data are gathered from a variety of sources including energy consumption and more general standard of living surveys. These data span a wide range of countries, including many developing countries for which appliance ownership is currently low, but likely to grow significantly over the next decades as a result of economic development. The result is a ‘global’ parameterization of appliance ownership rates as a function of widely available macroeconomic variables for the four appliances studied, which provides a reliable basis for interpolation where data are not available, and forecasting of ownership rates on a global scale. The main value of this method is to form the foundation of bottom-up energy demand forecasts, project energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and allow for the construction of detailed emissions mitigation scenarios.

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