|Title||Generalized Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (GCOMAP):|
|Year of Publication||2005|
|Authors||Jayant A Sathaye, Willy Makundi, Larry L Dale, Peter T Chan, Kenneth Andrasko|
|Keywords||climate change and forestry, generalized comprehensive mitigation assessment process (gcomap)|
This paper describes the application of a dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP) to estimate the global potential for carbon sequestration in forest plantations and reducing carbon emissions from deforestation over the period 2000 to 2100, in response to six carbon price scenarios. The scenarios cover a range typically seen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector was disaggregated into ten regions, four largely temperate, developed regions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; and six developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China, India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation options — long- and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of emissions from deforestation. The results show that cumulative carbon benefits ranges from 50.9 to 113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbon benefits and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78% of modeled carbon benefits by 2100. The estimated present value of cumulative welfare change ranges from a decline of $157 billion to a gain of $81 billion, with the decline being due to a decrease in deforestation. The present value of carbon subsidy paid to the sector ranges from $188 billion ($3.69 /tC) to $2,369 billion ($20.93 /tC) for the lowest and highest carbon benefit scenarios, with overwhelming share of the subsidy spent on forestation, from 60 to 98%.
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