al Energy use in commercial building in China: Current situation and future scenarios

al Energy use in commercial building in China: Current situation and future scenarios

Titleal Energy use in commercial building in China: Current situation and future scenarios
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2007
AuthorsFlorian Bressand, Nan Zhou, Jiang Lin
Conference Name2007 ECEEE Summer Study Proceedings
KeywordsChina, commercial building, elasticity, energy efficiency, energy intensity, scenario
Abstract

While China’s 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity, whether and how the energy consumption trend could be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. Th is research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy effi ciency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China’s offi cial energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use; further, China uses a diff erent classifi cation system for energy reporting, so offi cial sectoral energy breakdown has long been questioned. It is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption, for example, in China’s statistics it only accounts for about 13 % of the total, while it is about 30 % in other countries. Th erefore, it is crucial to evaluate and understand the reality, rather than simply accepting it, as many of the energy analysts have done. Th e authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese effi ciency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. Th e bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment effi ciency, etc.—as a way to apply judgments, thus facilitating assessment of impacts of specifi c policy and technology changes on building energy use. Th e results suggest that 1) commercial energy consumption in China’s current statistics is underestimated by about 44 % and the fuel mix is misleading; 2) energy effi ciency improvements will not be suffi cient to off set the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings, and energy (particularly electricity) intensity in commercial buildings will increase; 3) diff erent GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of fl oor area growth, and therefore, signifi cant impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.

LBNL Report Number

LBNL-62839