Where are we going? Future Energy & Mobility Impacts of Shared, Automated, & Electrified Vehicles
As the transportation sector undergoes three major transformations—electrification, shared/on-demand mobility, and automation—the future of transportation is highly uncertain. Will autonomous vehicles (AVs) solve all our problems or will induced demand make traffic worse? Will travelers prefer riding alone in shared fleets of AVs or will they elect for pooled vehicles? How much energy will we consume? In this seminar, I will present early results from a study intended to address questions like these through detailed modeling analysis performed at LBNL, UC Berkeley, and NREL and in close collaboration with the DOE SMART Mobility Consortium. The work involves coupling and coordination across several models including BEAM, UrbanSim, AIMSun, FASTSim, and Route-E. We analyze several scenarios which span potential futures where vehicle automation, sharing, and electrification all make varying penetrations into the transportation system.
Affiliate, Sustainable Energy Systems Group, Sustainable Energy & Environmental Systems Department, Energy Analysis & Environmental Impacts Division, Transportation Initiative
Colin Sheppard is a Transportation Scientific Engineering Associate at LBNL in the Sustainable Energy Systems Group with expertise in energy and transportation systems engineering. For eleven years he has been working in the spaces of sustainable transportation, renewable energy resources development, and energy efficiency. Mr. Sheppard’s role at LBNL under the DOE SMART Mobility Initiative is leading the development of the BEAM Framework (Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility), an integrated systems approach to sustainable transportation analysis. BEAM involves agent-based simulation modeling of a fully multi-modal transportation system that includes public transit and shared/autonomous mobility services in addition to traditional modes. Mr. Sheppard also works on developing analytical tools to assess the role that flexible EV loads will play in the future power system, including both an analysis of flexibility from privately owned EVs as well as fleets of shared and automated electric vehicles serving mobility on-demand.