SEMINAR: The Whys and Hows of Modeling Electric Load Shape (* Batteries included)
If someone buys an electric car, or switches to a time-of-use rate plan, their electric load shape will change (the load shape is the pattern of electricity usage as a function of time). To quantify the change, we need to compare their actual load shape to the load shape they would have had if they hadn’t introduced the new technology. The actual load shape is known from the meter, but how can we know what their load shape would have been without the new technology? In this talk, Phil will briefly compare two approaches to answering this: (1) a ‘pre/post’ method that is based on fitting a simple baseline model to the time period before the technology was introduced, and using it to predict what would have happened later in the absence of the new technology; and (2) a ‘case/control’ approach in which technology adopters are compared to technology non-adopters. Finally, he will briefly discuss the problem of optimizing the sizing and operation of a grid-connected battery and explain why this is intimately connected to the issue of load shape prediction.
Former Staff Scientist, LBNL
Dr. Phillip Price was a Staff Scientist in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory until late 2015. Since then, he has been a freelance consultant; most of his work has been related to analyzing building electricity data. He has a Ph.D. in theoretical atomic physics and is an elected Fellow of the American Physical Society.