SEMINAR: Representing the stochasticity of occupant behavior models in validation and simulation
As a key factor influencing the building energy consumption, occupant behavior has been drawing much attention in the building simulation field. Numerous models could be found in literature to quantify the interaction between the occupants and the environment. Occupant behavior is often represented as the stochastic model, since it is related with many factors and hard to predict with high confidence. The stochasticity introduced into occupant behavior modeling calls for special treatment in the model validation as well as during the simulation process. First, stochastic models yield non-deterministic simulation results, which necessitates statistical evaluation of the model accuracy, instead of the comparison between actual data and a single-run simulated data. Second, repetition is supposed to be introduced during the simulation to ensure the convergence of the simulation results. Third, the dynamic interaction between occupants and the environment asks for a temporal resolution higher than the time intervals that are adopted by most simulation programs. This study investigates the validation and simulation framework with occupant behavior models, based on statistical methods that model the non-deterministic simulation results as probabilistic distributions. It applies hypothesis testing to validate occupant behavior models, to conclude the appropriate simulation repetition, and to determine the time interval in occupant behavior simulation.
Associate Professor, Tsinghua University
Dr. Da Yan is an Associate Professor in School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, China. Since 2005, Dr. Da Yan has made significant original contributions across a diverse set of research areas and projects. His research focuses on energy efficiency of buildings including human energy-related behavior modeling and simulation in buildings, DeST research and development, building energy code and standards, and national building energy and policy study. Da Yan devoted his effort into the development of the building energy simulation tool DeST (Designer’s Simulation Tool) since 2000 and won the second national prize for scientific and technological progress of China in 2008. He is the operating agent of IEA EBC Annex 66 with more than 100 participants from more than 20 countries. Da Yan is the National Representative of IBPSA-China (International Building Performance Simulation Association), and chair of Association of Simulation in Heating and air conditioning of China.