SEMINAR: Changes in Residential Energy Demand with Climate Change, Population Growth, and Electrification: Case Study of Los Angeles
In this seminar, Dr. Reyna will overview her doctoral research, focusing on her most recent publication: Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change (doi: 10.1038/ncomms14916). Under current climate change projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), many parts of the world are expected to increase in annual average temperatures, which will have significant implications for building energy use. In U.S., which has significant proportions of its population in warm and hot climates, air conditioning in residential buildings already constitutes approximately 5% of total electricity use, and this proportion will likely increase with climate change. This could lead to additional environmental burdens and economic costs for homeowners. Using Los Angeles County, California as a case study, Dr. Reyna developed a spatially and temporally resolute building energy stock model of residential electricity and natural gas use under multiple climate change projections and investigated the potential for energy efficient technologies to offset increased demand. Under variations of CMIP5 climate projections, Dr. Reyna finds that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41-87% between 2020 and 2060, due to rising residential cooling demand, increased air conditioning saturation, and population growth. However, aggressive policy intervention aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could offset much of the projected increases in demand, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. Aggressive energy efficiency measures are therefore recommended to help offset climate change and population demands on the electricity grid. Dr. Reyna will also discuss future opportunities to align the timing of energy efficiency measures to reduce cost and emissions for the electrical grid system.
Janet L. Reyna, Ph.D.
ORISE Science and Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office in Building Energy Modeling program
Dr. Janet L. Reyna is an ORISE Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office in the Building Energy Modeling program. She holds a Ph.D. in Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering from Arizona State University, a master’s degree from the same program, and a bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from Purdue University. During her Ph.D., Dr. Reyna was a recipient of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Graduate Research Fellowship and spent a summer as a guest researcher at the Pontifica Católica Universidad del Perú in Lima. Her research focuses on environmental impacts of urban energy systems, and she aims to provide information for policy decision-making with her work. Her research interests include building stock growth, energy forecasting under climate change, and transportation air emissions. She has expertise in life cycle assessment, energy forecasting, building energy modeling, vehicle emissions simulation, and spatial analysis. Dr. Reyna’s work has been published in journals such as Nature Communications, Environmental Science & Technology, and Journal of Industrial Ecology.