New Method and Reporting of Uncertainty in LBNL National Energy Modeling System Runs

New Method and Reporting of Uncertainty in LBNL National Energy Modeling System Runs

TitleNew Method and Reporting of Uncertainty in LBNL National Energy Modeling System Runs
Publication TypeReport
Year of Publication2002
AuthorsEtan Gumerman, Kristina Hamachi LaCommare, Chris Marnay
Pagination29
Date Published10/2002
InstitutionLBNL
CityBerkeley
KeywordsNational Energy Modeling System (NEMS)
Abstract

This report describes LBNL's approach for assessing uncertainty in any National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)-related analysis. Based on years of experience using LBNL-NEMS for various analyses, LBNL developed an alternative approach that aims to provide a simple yet comprehensive perspective of how the results behave under a given set of what we believe to be some of the issues important to large-scale energy modeling. This project has established a standard set of eight sensitivity cases that can be run overnight and are highly likely to produce stable and interesting results. The goal was to establish a limited number of interesting sensitivity cases that would routinely produce adjunct results to LBNL-NEMS reporting that will be of value to our readers. These cases will be routinely reported together with future LBNLNEMS results in the form of a standard output table. As an example, this work uses a Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) analysis run as the baseline, but the goal is to establish a standardized set of cases that would change little over time and be applicable to other analyses in addition to GPRA. The approach developed here cannot serve as a substitute for a sensitivity analysis tailored to the question at hand, but it can provide a fast review of some areas that have proven to be of interest in the past.

LBNL Report Number

LBNL-52399