|Title||Contributions of Individual Countries' Emissions to Climate Change and Their Uncertainty|
|Year of Publication||2010|
|Authors||Niklas Höhne, Helcio Blum, Jan Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Atsushi Kurosawa, Guoquan Hu, Jason Lowe, Laila Gohar, Ben Matthews, Ana Claudia Ni de Salles, Christian Ellermann|
We have compiled historical greenhouse gas emissions and their uncertainties on country and sector level and assessed their contribution to cumulative emissions and to global average temperature increase in the past and for a the future emission scenario. We find that uncertainty in historical contribution estimates differs between countries due to different shares of greenhouse gases and time development of emissions. Although historical emissions in the distant past are very uncertain, their influence on countries' or sectors' contributions to temperature increase is relatively small in most cases, because these results are dominated by recent (high) emissions. For relative contributions to cumulative emissions and temperature.
Journal, Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9930-6.Sep, 2010